Performance Prediction on Progress Control Using a Logistic Cumulative Curve for Plant Construction

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  • ロジスティック累積曲線を用いたプラント建設の進捗状態推定法
  • ロジスティック ルイセキ キョクセン オ モチイタ プラント ケンセツ ノ シンチョク ジョウタイ スイテイホウ

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Progress control mostly depends on experience in construction projects because there are many factors which affect progress control and relation between factors is very complex. There is a concern that skilled project managers for plant construction will decrease in the future. It's necessary to clarify the factors and compose a standard control method. In this paper the knowledge of project managers in the area of progress control is clarified and a performance prediction method using their knowledge is presented. The construction model, which has the input of "delivery and construction ability" and the output as "accomplishment, labor and cost, " is presented. The performance prediction method using logistic cumulative curves about "accomplishment, labor and cost" is presented. The decision-making model and algorithm, which describe the performance prediction and performance evaluation, is clarified. As a result, the model and algorithm present the performance prediction method using the relation between planned logistic cumulative curves and actual logistic cumulative curves, and the parameter which describes the progress condition.

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