Outcome Evaluation of Care Prevention Programs for Frail Elderly in a Particular Municipality: Cox Proportional Hazards Models for New Cases of Long-Term Care Need Risk

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  • Sato Yu
    Department of Nursing, Faculty of Health and Welfare, Seinan Jo Gakuin University
  • Kage Mika
    Department of Nursing, Faculty of Health and Welfare, Seinan Jo Gakuin University

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Other Title
  • 特定の地方自治体における介護保険二次予防事業のアウトカム評価：新規要介護認定の発生を指標としたCox比例ハザードモデルによる分析
  • トクテイ ノ チホウ ジチタイ ニ オケル カイゴ ホケン ニジ ヨボウ ジギョウ ノ アウトカム ヒョウカ : シンキ ヨウカイゴニンテイ ノ ハッセイ オ シヒョウ ト シタ Cox ヒレイ ハザードモデル ニ ヨル ブンセキ

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Objectives: The objective of this study was to perform an outcome evaluation focused on the long-term effects of care prevention programs for frail elderly by comparing frail elderly certified as requiring long-term care in a particular municipality.<br>Methods: The target population of this study was 1,936 frail elderly residents of Kitakyushu City, who were candidates for 4 types of care prevention programs in Fukuoka Prefecture during the fiscal year 2007. We examined whether the elderly residents qualified for a Certification of Needed Long-Term Care between April 2007 and March 2013. A Cox proportional hazards model was applied to calculate hazard ratios (HR).<br>Results: Overall, 53.3% of the residents in the participant group were certified as requiring long-term care, while this figure was 38.8% for the non-participant group. The non-participant group was not more likely to be certified as requiring long-term care than the participant group (HR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.61–0.90).<br>Conclusions: Although the results revealed that participating in the care prevention programs did not work to prevent new cases of long-term care need, they provided suggestions about the methods of its detailed evaluation and indicated that programs need additional support after the program.

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