対外開放政策推進下の中国における物価動向と貨幣の超過供給

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  • Price Level and Excess Money under the ‘Open Door’ Policy in China
  • タイガイ カイホウ セイサク スイシン カ ノ チュウゴク ニ オケル ブッカ ドウコウ ト カヘイ ノ チョウカ キョウキュウ

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This paper investigates the factors that explain the movement in China’s inflation rate following the promotion of its ‘open door’ policy. Since 1990, inflation in China has fluctuated greatly despite a stable growth in real GDP. Inflation showed an upward trend in the early 1990s, fell and stagnated in the late 1990s, and has risen again since 2000. This paper therefore examines why, despite stable economic growth over the past two decades, China’s inflation rates have risen since 2000.<br>Although some previous studies have suggested that an expansion in demand has caused China’s inflation rates to rise since 2000, demand-side factors alone cannot explain this phenomenon. Since 2000, the increase in foreign direct investment has brought about an increase in the trade surplus and in demand. Because demand factors cause a rise not only in inflation rates but also in real GDP growth, they do not explain China’s characteristics. This article thus examines how monetary factors other than demand affect inflation.<br>To verify the relationship between the money market and price, an error-correction model for I(2) variables is used. Nominal money supply and price level variables are introduced into the model to estimate the effect of a change in the money market on price level, and the integrated orders of both variables are said to be 2. Moreover, as the sample period overlaps the promotion of the ‘open door’ policy, the nominal effective exchange rate is included in the model to reflect foreign factors. Hence, this paper estimates the money demand function by imposing an identification restriction on the error-correction term that describes the relations between money supply and demand.<br>The empirical results suggest that excess money can explain China’s fluctuating inflation rate during a period of stable economic growth. It is shown that the error-correction term, which is interpreted as the relation between money supply and demand, significantly affects the price acceleration variables but not the production acceleration variables. Furthermore, the results show that excess money is brought about by a decline in the nominal effective exchange rate and a rise in the inflation rate, which are driven by foreign factors.

収録刊行物

  • アジア研究

    アジア研究 58 (3), 72-85, 2012

    一般財団法人 アジア政経学会

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