STUDY ON THE METHODOLOGY TO ESTIMATE THE OBSOLESCENCE IN HOUSING : Analysis on Housing Statistics : Part 3

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Other Title
  • 滅失住宅推計方法論および地域特性の検討 : 住宅統計資料の分析-その 3
  • 住宅統計資料の分析-3-滅失住宅推計方法論および地域特性の検討
  • ジュウタク トウケイ シリョウ ノ ブンセキ 3 メッシツ ジュウタク スイケ

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Abstract

The contents of this study are summarized as follows; 1) The trend of obsolescence in housing is perfectly expressed with Logistic-curve or Gompertz-curve. In this study, it is proved by the data at the pre war period and 1945 to 1950. By using this method, it is possible to estimate the house's durable year and the number of obsolescence houses during a certain time in future. 2) Next, when the fact stated above is applied on regional level, it is possible to examine the trend of obsolescence in housing on different regions, and to estimate the trend of obsolescence in future on the region by using section data. 3) The level of obsolescence on one region is influenced by economic, social and enviromental conditions on that region. On the whole, the speed of obsolescence is more higher in East Japan than in West Japan. 4) A tendency of 3) is most evident at pre war houses, but at the houses comparatively in recent years it becomes more vague. 5) The level of obsolescence is connected with the durable year of housing. If the former is high (low), the latter is short (long). 6) The obsolescence of pre war houses is more significant on non-urbanized region. 7) In recent years, the houses destroyed by the obsolecence is equal to 70% to 80% of all destroyed houses. And this ratio is more lower on urbanized region, because houses destroying by other causes, for example, urban renewal or road construction, etc., is increasing.

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