TRAFFIC DEMAND ESTIMATION MODEL BY OBSERVED LINK FLOWS CONSIDERING TREND OF SECULAR CHANGE

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  • 傾向変動を考慮したリンク交通量によるOD交通量推計法
  • ケイコウ ヘンドウ オ コウリョシタ リンク コウツウリョウ ニ ヨル OD

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Abstract

We have developed some models which estimate an OD matrix from traffic counts. In this paper, we present a model to estimate OD matrix consistent with the observed link flows considering trend of a secular change. The model is constructed by maximum likelihood method on the assumption that the past OD table and a set of probabilities of using links by each OD pair are known.<br>Scince that the existence of errors in the predetermined and the observed data will give some influences on the accuracy in the estimates in practical application of the model, we examined and compared our models through numerical analyses.

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