ESTIMATION OF FIRST PASSAGE PROBABILITIES BY PSEUDO ANALYTICAL METHOD

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  • HOSHIYA Masaru
    社団法人 土木学会 武蔵工業大学 工学部都市基盤工学科
  • MARUYAMA Osamu
    社団法人 土木学会 武蔵工業大学 工学部都市基盤工学科

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  • 準解析手法による動的非線形系の初期通過確率算定
  • ジュンカイセキ シュホウ ニ ヨル ドウテキ ヒセンケイケイ ノ ショキ ツウカ カクリツ サンテイ

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Abstract

A pseudo analytical method for time-dependent system reliability analysis of nonlinear stochastic structural dynamics is investigated. This method is a class of linearization approaches that linearize approximately a nonlinear state vector equation to a discrete Gaussian and Markovian state vector equation, and the optimal state vector and covariances at times k and k+1 are estimated by the Kalman Filter algorithm with a set of numerically obtained response data. In this way, the probability of performance may be evaluated. Finally, a numerical example of a nonlinear structural system is demonstrated in order to examine the efficiency of the method.

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