Study on Forecast of Regional Industrial Solid Waste Generation: Framework of Systematic Approach

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  • Yang Jinmei
    Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University
  • Fujiwara Takesi
    Division of Sustainability of Resources, Graduate School of Environmental Science, Okayama University
  • Matsuoka Yuzuru
    Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University

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  • 地域産業廃棄物発生量の予測に関する研究：システマチックアプローチのフレームワーク

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Abstract

Economic growth brings industrialization and mass generation of industrial solid waste (ISW). In order to improve the waste management system, it is necessary to identify and forecast the waste generation corresponding to composition by industrial sector. This paper constructs a systematic approach to project ISW generation by industry based on the probable industrial restructuring. The approach includes three principal models: national/regional macro-economic model, input-output analysis (IO), and waste generation model. In the performance of IO analysis, 3 kinds of scenarios are assumed to quantitatively project the industrial restructuring, from the aspects of consumption, export-import and technology innovation. The approach provides a feasible attempt on the medium and long-run prediction of ISW generation within the limited waste statistics.

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