Development of Bayesian Reasoning in a Drawing-of-Lots Problem

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  • 「ベイズ型くじびき課題」における推論様式の発達
  • ベイズガタ クジビキ カダイ ニ オケル スイロン ヨウシキ ノ ハッタツ

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate the developmental processes of mental operations, as a competence factor for Bayesian reasoning on a drawing-of-lots problem. The main results were as follows. First, junior high school students passed only problems with a first-order quantification of probability (Nakagaki, 1989), while university students were able to pass problems with a second-order quantification of probability. Next, "likelihood neglect" was apparent in participants' responses rather than "base-rate neglect." Finally, participants did not appear to use the representativeness heuristic in their reasoning (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), and even university students lacked competence in Bayesian reasoning (third-order quantification of probability).

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