AN ANALYSIS OF MARKET RESPONSE BY HIERARCHICAL MULTIVARIATE STATE SPACE MODELS

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  • 3階層多変量状態空間モデリングによる動的市場反応形成メカニズムの解明
  • 3 カイソウ タヘンリョウ ジョウタイ クウカン モデリング ニ ヨル ドウテキ シジョウ ハンノウ ケイセイ メカニズム ノ カイメイ

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Abstract

The purpose of this research is to clarify the mechanism of dynamic market responses by hierarchical state space models. We assume that dynamic effects of sales promotions change with time under the influence of the ad-stock and the store level reference prices. In other words, this assumption corresponds to the facts that the ad-stock and reference prices affect the brand sales indirectly. We model the dynamic market responses by the framework of the hierarchical state model. We apply the model to real POS data. The results of analysis show that dynamic effects of sales promotions are affected by the ad-stock and the store level reference prices. These findings of this research imply that it is important to control not the ad volume and the price directly but the ad-stock and the store level reference price.

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