研究開発プロジェクト評価技術の限界 : 系譜分析による本質的活用意義の明確化

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  • Practical Limits of R & D Project Evaluation Techniques : Clarification of Essential Practical-Use Significance by Genealogy Analysis
  • ケンキュウ カイハツ プロジェクト ヒョウカ ギジュツ ノ ゲンカイ : ケイフ ブンセキ ニ ヨル ホンシツテキ カツヨウ イギ ノ メイカクカ

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A large wealth of knowledge has been accumulated from studies which have investigated research and development (R & D) decision making, information that can be used by managers to answer the question of how R & D resources should be managed. Among such studies is a series investigating "project evaluation techniques", in particular focusing upon methodologies to estimate financial value from by evaluating an individual R & D project. Such methodologies include the well known discounted cash flow (DCF), decision tree analysis, Monte-Carlo simulation, and a real option. From genealogical analysis of project evaluation techniques and a review of the literature, this paper clarifies the practical value of these methodologies, and points out two potential problems of R & D project evaluation techniques; (1) accuracy of numerical value prediction, (2) inexhaustive scenario planning. Excessive trust has been placed on results using these scientifically highly-qualified techniques without adequate consideration of possible limitations that have the potent to obstruct the directional movement of R & D strategy, particularly those shared among organizations. Although R & D project evaluation techniques are being developed to help choose a project with a greater probability of success, this is not always the outcome. In fact the likelihood of success of an R & D project may be reduced using such techniques compared to the situation in which each person in the R & D organization understands what is going to happen using a decision tree to then push forward the best R & D project. This paper demonstrates four important points for practical-use of R & D project evaluation techniques; (1) understand the risk of R & D project evaluation techniques that result in disincentives of decision-making, (2) remove the illusion of mere quantitative analysis, (3) chose R & D project evaluation techniques that enable decision makers to understand characteristic features of the project, and (4) educate those involved in the essential meaning of R & D project evaluation techniques.

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