アメリカの対外債務累積と「カジノ資本主義」の新段階 : その構造・意味・限界(<特集>グローバル資本主義の構造)

The Nixon administration decided to end the dollar's convertibility into gold in 1971. The U.S. external deficit has been increasing from year to year after that. The huge U.S. external deficit caused the changeable rate of foreign exchange and interest, and consequently the short-term capital movement for the sake of hedge, arbitrage and speculation increased. In early 1980s, the portfolio investment toward U.S. by private investors of Japan and FRG increased markedly, because they could not find out the favorable investment opportunity in the domestic markets under the depression. The Dollar glut which was brought about by the huge U.S. external deficit was the source of this international investment. Thus the international money game came to be remarkable in early 1980s. Susan Strange called this situation "Casino Capitalism". In the latter half of 1990s "Casino Capitalism" entered the new stage. The most important constituent of this stage has been a marked increase of U.S. current account deficit, external debt. On the international capital markets in late 1990s, it is the popular view that "the United States is playing the role of a global intermediary; it attracts international capital by providing relatively safe, liquid instruments at relatively high returns and then reinvests them through international markets in less liquid vehicles for higher returns." But this view makes mistakes. U.S. capital inflow has the characteristics which other countries never have. Generally speaking the volumes of foreign capital export toward U.S. are limited by the volumes of U.S. external deficit itself. The significance of current account deficit for U.S. has changed drastically since late 1990s. The current account deficit has shifted its role for U.S. economic growth from the brake to the accelerator. But it is still true that the current account deficit means the leak of purchasing power from U.S. to foreign countries. Therefore U.S. can accept the current account deficit under the specific conditions that the rate of growth of domestic demand in U.S. is larger than the rate of growth of foreign demand. Now U.S. is the only country that can leave the huge current account deficit, cumulative external debt if the domestic demand growth could absorb the pressure of the current account deficit. Moreover U.S. is the only country that can increase the investment abroad in spite of the growing current account deficit. If the international money flow were favorable for U.S., it would maintain these privileges. Since late 1990s, the global casino games have been favorable for U.S. real economy. But the powerful domestic demand growth can't continue forever. That is the very limitations of U.S. growing current account deficit, i.e., cumulative external debt and "casino capitalism".