ドル流動性危機と基軸通貨の交替(グローバリゼーション下の経済金融危機と国家-新たな金融・財政政策の展開を踏まえて,第59回大会共通論題)

書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • Dollar Liquidity Crisis and the Future of Key Currency System(The Global Economic Crisis and State: Alternative Approaches for Monetary and Fiscal Policies,The 59^<th> Annual Conference, Plenary Session)
  • ドル流動性危機と基軸通貨の交替
  • ドル リュウドウセイ キキ ト キジク ツウカ ノ コウタイ

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(1)Two Hypotheses: Revived Bretton Woods system and Global Imbalance Advocators of Revived Bretton Woods system (BW II) claim that current dollar system is sustainable while other scholars criticize this argument and claim that it is unsustainable because of the Global Imbalance. How should we interpret this dispute? (2)Asian Economy in the Dollar System Most of the capital import to the US in the 2000s came from East Asia, especially from China. These facts support the argument of BW II. However, East Asian Economy, especially the Chines Economy did not depend upon the financial intermediation of American money market. These facts did not support the Arguments of BW II. (3)American Financial Intermediation and European Banks The countries which depended upon the US money market were not East Asian countries but European Countries which had advanced money market. European Banks borrowed a huge amount of money in the dollar wholesale money market. (4)Dollar Liquidity Crisis Once the subprime financial crisis occurred, the European banks began to face the dollar liquidity shortage because of the increase in counterparty risk in the dollar wholesale money market. They could not roll over in the dollar money market just after the breakdown of Lehman Brothers. (5)Dollar Liquidity Crisis and Emerging Economy in Latin America As European banks had to curtail financial assets in the emerging markets due to the dollar liquidity shortage, the dollar liquidity crisis spread to the emerging economy. East Asian and Latin American countries could cope with these effects due to the development of domestic financial markets although emerging Europe could not deal with these difficulties. (6)Global Lender of Last Resort Federal Reserve took the initiative to organize the global lender of last resort through the opening of dollar swap agreements with other central banks. ECB also organized the euro swap agreements with other European central banks. Chiang Mai Initiative was developed in the East Asian countries. The People's Bank of China began to organize the RMB swap agreements with other Asian and Latin American central banks. In addition assets of IMF were increased and Flexible Credit Line was created in the International Monetary Fund to save the emerging economy. (7)Review of Two Hypotheses Advocators of Global Imbalance forecasted the dollar decline due to the decrease in the capital imports to the US. This forecast turned out to be not true. Dollar exchange rate against European currencies surged during dollar liquidity crisis. We can neither support the arguments of BWIIbecause current dollar system is not stable. (8)Conclusion We can conclude that the current dollar system will be continuing in near future because the dollar money markets are thick and liquid to intermediate international financial transactions in the world. However this does not mean that the current dollar system is stable and firm. The global organizing of lender of last resort might inspire the dollar borrowing and lending in the world markets. The increase in the lender of last resort facilities might encourage the moral hazard problem. The multipolarity of key currency will develop in the far distant future due to the rise of emerging economy such as China, Brazil, India, and other countries.

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