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S0830203 Effect of Demand Prediction Accuracy on Energy Saving Characteristic of PEFC-CGS for Residential Use

  • YOSHIKAWA Jun
    Waseda University, Graduate School of Fundamental Science and Engineering
  • YOSHIDA Akira
    早稲田大学基幹理工学部機械科学・航空学科
  • AMANO Yoshiharu
    早稲田大学理工学術院総合研究所理工学研究所

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Other Title
  • S0830203 家庭用PEFC-CGSにおける需要予測精度が省エネルギー性に与える影響の分析

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to clarify the impact of energy demand prediction accuracy on optimal operating result of residential energy supply system. In this paper, the energy system consists of polymer electrolyte fuel cell cogeneration system and electrical-driven heating, ventilating and air conditioning system. Primary energy of operational results with various demand prediction patterns are calculated in order to analyze the effect of demand prediction error. As a result, it is concluded that prediction error of energy demand causes 54.3 MJ/day increase of daily primary energy in the worst case, and annual primary energy consumption can be reduced by 13.2% with the best prediction in comparison with the worst one. Furthermore, the impact of energy demand prediction accuracy on daily primary energy has relationship with the amount of hot water demand. Therefore, the effectiveness of using the amount of hot water demand as a parameter for demand prediction is suggested in terms of energy saving.

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