宗派主義という隘路：イラク世論調査に見る政党支持構造の分析を手掛かりに

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  • Rethinking Sectarianism: Based on Party Support Structure Found in the Iraqi Poll
  • シュウハ シュギ ト イウ アイロ : イラク ヨロン チョウサ ニ ミル セイトウ シジ コウゾウ ノ ブンセキ オ テガカリ ニ

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This paper aims to clarify ‘revised sectarianism’ substantially by analysing the ‘political party support structure’ based on the poll that our research team conducted in Iraq in October 2011. Based on the logit model on the survey data of Iraqi citizens, the following four points became clear. First, the sectarian tendency in party support became relatively clear in analysing macro data such as the results of elections. Second, on the other hand, it became clear that the tendency toward sectarianism undoubtedly varied across sectarian groups when we analysed the micro data of the poll; Sunni voters, in particular, were less subject to sectarian factors in supporting their party. Third, considerably different policies were supported by the voters who supported the same sectarian and ethnic parties. On the other hand, supporters of both the Shi’ite and Sunni parties often showed similarity in terms of policy preferences. Fourth, as the majority of voters tend not to express support for a political party, the main Iraqi parties are losing their support. These four discoveries demonstrate that it is inappropriate to analyse Iraqi politics based on sectarian and ethnic factors alone, and that ideology and policy orientation can also play a significant role.

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