On Case-Fatality Rate: Review and Hypothesis
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- Yoshikura Hiroshi
- National Institute of Infectious Diseases
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Abstract
The relationship between log cumulative number of patients (X) and that of deaths (Y) in an epidemic follows the equation logY = klogX − klogN0, where k is a constant determining the slope and N0 is the value of X when Y = 1. Diseases with k = 1 are Ebola hemorrhagic fever, avian influenza H5N1, cholera, and hand, foot, and mouth disease; those with k > 1 are the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic in countries other than Mexico and the SARS epidemic in some countries; and those with k < 1 include the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic in Mexico. Epidemics with k > 1 can be simulated by postulating two subpopulations (normal population [NP] and vulnerable population [VP]), where the epidemic proceeds at higher speed and at higher mortality in VP than in NP. Epidemics with k < 1 can be simulated by postulating coexisting high virulence virus (HVV) and low virulence virus (LVV), with the former being propagated at slower speed and with a higher mortality rate than the latter. An epidemic with k > 1 was simulated using parameters that are fractions of subpopulations NP or VP from the total population (f) and NP- or VP-specific patient multiplication (M) and mortality (D) rates. An epidemic with k < 1 was simulated using parameters that are fractions of HVV- or LVV-infected human populations (f), and HVV- or LVV-specific M and D.
Journal
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- Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases
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Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases 65 (4), 279-288, 2012
National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases Editorial Committee
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Details 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390001206241312256
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- NII Article ID
- 130001931823
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- NII Book ID
- AA1132885X
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- ISSN
- 18842836
- 13446304
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- NDL BIB ID
- 023840436
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- PubMed
- 22814148
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- Text Lang
- en
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- Data Source
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- JaLC
- NDL
- Crossref
- PubMed
- CiNii Articles
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- Abstract License Flag
- Disallowed