Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process to a Risk Assessment of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Shaoxing City in Southern China
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- Tu Chunyu
- Shaoxing Center for Disease Control and Prevention
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- Fang Yirong
- Shaoxing Center for Disease Control and Prevention
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- Huang Zhaohui
- Shaoxing Center for Disease Control and Prevention
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- Tan Rongmei
- Medical College of Shaoxing University
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Abstract
This study aimed to assess the likelihood of an outbreak or epidemic of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in Shaoxing city, China, and its resulting impact to provide decision makers with quantitative, directive results. Factors related to the risk of EIDs were selected through meeting with experts and were arranged in a hierarchical structure. These evaluation factors were also weighted to allow the use of a point system for evaluation. As a result, 14 evaluation factors comprising a 3-layer hierarchy were generated. The riskiest top 10 EIDs were HIV/AIDS (consistency index [CI] = 3.206), cholera (CI = 3.103), SARS (CI = 2.804), acute schistosomiasis (CI = 2.784), malaria (CI = 2.777), legionellosis (CI = 2.743), avian influenza A/H5N1 (CI = 2.734), dengue fever (CI = 2.702), Escherichia coli O157:H7 enteritis (CI = 2.593), and plague (CI = 2.553). The risk assessment was specifically intended to support local and national government agencies in the management of high risk EIDs in their efforts to (i) make resource allocation decisions, (ii) make high-level planning decisions, and (iii) raise public awareness of the EID risk. The results showed that the EID risk in Shaoxing could be effectively assessed through an analytic hierarchy process.
Journal
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- Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases
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Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases 67 (6), 417-422, 2014
National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases Editorial Committee
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Keywords
Details 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390001206241510144
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- NII Article ID
- 130004712731
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- NII Book ID
- AA1132885X
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- ISSN
- 18842836
- 13446304
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- NDL BIB ID
- 025937761
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- PubMed
- 25410554
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- Text Lang
- en
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- Data Source
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- JaLC
- NDL
- Crossref
- PubMed
- CiNii Articles
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- Abstract License Flag
- Disallowed