Analysis of the Trend of Seasonality of Fresh Fruit Consumption in Japan by a Statistical Method

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  • 果実消費の季節性変化の解析
  • カジツ ショウヒ ノ キセツセイ ヘンカ ノ カイセキ

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The yearly trend of seasonality of fresh fruit consumption was analyzed, using the Annual Reports on “The family income and expenditure survey” (1963-1984), issued by Statistic Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, Japan, by a statistical method which was newly developed in our previous paper. Following to the analysis, the yearly trend of monthly relative consumption was also analyzed by the maximum marginal likelihood method for smoothing serial data in order to estimate the main factors responsible for the change of seasonality of fresh fruit consumption. Seven fruit species analyzed included satsuma mandarin, apple. Oriental pear, peach, persimmon and Natsudaidai. Results obtained are as follows;<br>1. Current seasonal concentrations of fresh fruit consumption were confirmed to remain extremely high, with peach taking the lead.<br>2. Linear regression of the trend of seasonal concentrations in years showed that grape was under the trend of year-round consumption, whereas apple was under the trend of season consumption. Analysis by maximum marginal likelihood analysis method for smoothing serial data showed that the yearly changes of seasonal concentrations of all the other 5 fruit species showed significantly bending trend. For example satsuma mandarin was recently under the trend of season consumption following the previous trend of year-round consumption.<br>3. Mean consumption time was found to exhibit a significant shift for the 3 species. In the cases of grape and satsuma mandarin, consumption time was of the trend of advance, whereas in the case of peach, consumption time was of the trend of regression.<br>4. Analysis of the trend of monthly relative consumption of satsuma mandarin in years showed that bending trend, from decrease to increase, of seasonal concentration of the consumption coincided with the pattern of relative consumption in December, the month during which the largest consumption was recorded. Significant advance of consumption time should be forced by the increasing trends of relative consumption in Aug. to Nov. and the decreasing trends of relative consumption in Feb. to Apr.<br>5. Through the determination of the main factors controlling the increase and decrease of the relative consumption in each month, the analysis of the trend of monthly relative consumption should enable to identify the key factors responsible for the change of seasonality of the consumption of each fresh fruit.

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