Virology : Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan

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  • HAYAMA Yoko
    Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3–1–5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305–0856, Japan
  • YAMAMOTO Takehisa
    Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3–1–5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305–0856, Japan
  • KOBAYASHI Sota
    Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3–1–5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305–0856, Japan
  • MUROGA Norihiko
    Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3–1–5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305–0856, Japan
  • TSUTSUI Toshiyuki
    Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3–1–5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305–0856, Japan

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  • Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan

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The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species, influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy, only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area, whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms, raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14 after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in planning FMD control strategies.

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