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Estimation of Steel Consumption and Obsolete Scrap Generation in Japan and Asian Countries in the Future

  • Igarashi Yuma
    JFE Steel Corporation
  • Kakiuchi Elijah
    Graduate Student, Department of Materials Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo
  • Daigo Ichiro
    Department of Materials Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo
  • Matsuno Yasunari
    Department of Materials Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo
  • Adachi Yoshihiro
    Department of Materials Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo

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Abstract

The present flows of steel scraps in Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan are described, and a dynamic model that analyzes future scrap flows was developed. To estimate obsolete scrap recovery, a population balance model (PBM) was used for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The PBM dynamically estimated the amount of discarded steel by taking into account steel input into a society by end use and the lifetime distributions of each end use. For China, obsolete scrap recovery was estimated using a leaching model, which used the steel stock and the recovery ratio of obsolete scraps. Three different methods were applied to forecast future steel input for each country. The first method applied the assumption that steel demand in the future remains at the present level. The second method applied a logistic curve to estimate future steel stock. The third method applied regression equations to future steel input by end use. GDP and population were used as variables. Finally, the steel input forecasts produced by each method were substituted into the obsolete scrap recovery estimation model. The logistic curve method estimated that in 2030 obsolete scrap recovery would be 29 million tons in Japan, 83 million tons in China, 20 million tons in South Korea, and 3.7 million tons in Taiwan.

Journal

  • ISIJ International

    ISIJ International 48 (5), 696-704, 2008

    The Iron and Steel Institute of Japan

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