Predicting Future Tsunamis by Combining Historical Documentation, Sedimentological Study and Numerical Simulation

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  • Imamura Fumihiko
    Tsunami Engineering Laboratory, Disaster Control Research Center, Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University
  • Goto Kazuhisa
    Tsunami Engineering Laboratory, Disaster Control Research Center, Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University

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  • 過去の災害を復元し将来を予測するためのアプローチ<BR>—津波研究を事例に—
  • 過去の災害を復元し将来を予測するためのアプローチ--津波研究を事例に
  • カコ ノ サイガイ オ フクゲンシ ショウライ オ ヨソクスル タメノ アプローチ ツナミ ケンキュウ オ ジレイ ニ

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Abstract

It is rather difficult to reconstruct and understand the details of past tsunami events and behaviors because of limited information. Not only historical documents but also traces of tsunamis accumulated in the sediment can contribute to solving this difficulty. Although the documentation contains useful and valuable information to understand historical tsunami events, these descriptions of tsunami behavior are limited and there are many uncertainties involved. Thus, scientific evaluations of these data using the results from sedimentological study and numerical simulation with hydraulic models are required. In particular, since tsunami wave current and hydraulic force could be recorded in tsunami deposits, this information can be used for developing and calibrating the models. Study of sandy tsunami deposits is important to prepare for future tsunami events, because it is possible to understand the hydraulic properties of past tsunami events using sandy tsunami deposits. Not only the sandy particles but also the boulders transported by tsunamis are useful to understand past tsunami events. In this study, we introduce the numerical analyses of boulder transport by the 1771 Meiwa tsunami at Ishigaki Island, Japan.

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