Development of Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model by using large ensemble GCM simulation data(d4PDF)
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- UMEDA Jinji
- 株式会社ハイドロ総合技術研究所
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- NAKAJO Sota
- 大阪市立大学 大学院工学研究料
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- MORI Nobuhito
- 京都大学 防災研究所
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- 大規模アンサンブル気候予測データ（d4PDF)を用いた全球確率台風モデルの開発
- ダイキボ アンサンブル キコウ ヨソク データ(d4PDF)オ モチイタ ゼン キュウ カクリツ タイフウ モデル ノ カイハツ
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Abstract
<p> A global stochastic tropical cyclone model (GSTM) considering time series correlation of tropical cyclone properties has been developed by using large ensemble GCM simulation data (d4PDF). The bias of d4PDF has been corrected by using the information of the average and the standard deviation of tropical cyclone properties comparing with that of IBTrACS. AS a result, we could get accurate correction results at each 3 degree grid. The improvement of the reproducibility of the frequency has been observed at many area by using the joint probability distribution functions (JPDF) of GSTM approximated from the corrected d4PDF data. Especially, this improvement was significant in the area that the tropical cyclone data is insufficient. The simulation results show the variation of the change rate of future tropical cyclone frequency around Japan and the intensification of tropical cyclone depending on the SST scenario.</p>
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 75 (2), I_1195-I_1200, 2019
Japan Society of Civil Engineers