少年鑑別所に入所した非行少年の再犯リスクに関する研究―split population modelによる分析―

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  • Analysis of recidivism risk of juvenile delinquents released from a Juvenile Classification Home—Analysis using split population model—
  • ショウネン カンベツショ ニ ニュウショシタ ヒコウ ショウネン ノ サイハン リスク ニ カンスル ケンキュウ split population model ニ ヨル ブンセキ

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<p>A follow-up survey was conducted to identify risk factors that influence recidivism. We analyzed the recidivism of 520 delinquents who were released from a Juvenile Classification Home. The analysis was performed by using split population model that was one technique of survival analysis. As a result, the following risk factors were revealed to be significant predictors of the recidivism, low age at commitment, low IQ score, property offense, the violation of the Road Traffic Law, robber and broken home. This paper clarified risk factors of delinquents released from a Juvenile Classification Home with the evidence by using a statistical model. An empirical research of risk factors of the recidivism is very few in Japan, so the technique used in this paper and the obtained findings are important. It will be thought that a more detailed, more objective risk assessment becomes possible, by accumulating variables and building findings.</p>

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