Impacts of the TPP Agreement on Beef Demand in Japan: An Analysis by Class

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  • わが国牛肉の需要構造とTPP協定の影響
  • わが国牛肉の需要構造とTPP協定の影響 : 品種別分析
  • ワガクニ ギュウニク ノ ジュヨウ コウゾウ ト TPP キョウテイ ノ エイキョウ : ヒンシュベツ ブンセキ
  • 品種別分析

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Abstract

<p>The purpose of this paper is to econometrically clarify the demand for beef in Japan by dividing beef into four classes and considering nonstationary of time series data, and to discuss the impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement on domestic beef production. The main analysis results are as follows. First, demands for imported edible meats are more elastic to own price and edible meat expenditure compared with demands for domestic edible meats. Second, the TPP agreement will not significantly affect the demand quantity of Japanese beef or hybridize type beef but will reduce the demand quantity of dairy beef by 8.6%. Third, the situation after the TPP agreement comes into force will be different from the situation after the beef tariffication; thus, we cannot expect a mitigation effect of trade liberalization impact, such as the expansion in beef produced from Japanese cattle compensating for the reduction in beef produced from dairy cattle.</p>

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