Reliability analysis in uncertainty of slope stability influenced by spatial heterogeneity in geotechnical materials

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  • SATAKE Ryoichiro
    Domain of Environmental Engineering Science, Gunma University (currently Institute of Technology, Tokyu Construction)
  • WAKAI Akihiko
    Department of Environmental Engineering Science, Gunma University

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  • 材料の不均質性が斜面の安定性に及ぼす影響に関する解析的検討

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<p>The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of the spatial heterogeneity of the geotechnical materials on the uncertainty of the factor of safety(Fs) of slope. Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS) based on slope stability analysis with using shear strength reduction FEM was performed. As the results of MCS against for each parameter controlling the spatial heterogeneity in materials, it is shown that the average values of the probability density distribution of Fs obtained by MCS are always below the results of analyses assuming the homogeneity in materials. Given this fact, it is possible that the assumption that the materials are homogeneous leads to overestimate the durability of the structure. Furthermore, based on the results of MCS, the overdesign factors commonly used to secure the safety of the structure was calculated. The overdesign factors tended to increase exponentially as the coefficient of variation of probability density distribution obtained from MCS increased. </p>

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