Validation and Recalibration of Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Indices to Predict In-hospital Mortality in Hospitalized Patients in a Japanese Hospital-Based Administrative Database

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  • KIMURA Tomomi
    Advanced Informatics & Analytics, Astellas Pharma Inc., Tokyo, Japan
  • SUGITANI Toshifumi
    Advanced Informatics & Analytics, Astellas Pharma Inc., Tokyo, Japan
  • NISHIMURA Takuya
    Advanced Informatics & Analytics, Astellas Pharma Inc., Tokyo, Japan
  • ITO Masanori
    Advanced Informatics & Analytics, Astellas Pharma Inc., Tokyo, Japan

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<p>Objective: To validate and recalibrate Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices (CCI and ECI, respectively) in a Japanese hospital-based administrative database.</p><p>Methods: In this retrospective, cohort study, derivation and validation cohorts were developed to include all hospitalizations for patients aged ≥ 18 years at admission and discharged in 2015 or 2016, respectively, from an administrative database based on 287 hospitals. Seventeen CCI and 30 ECI conditions were identified using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) -10 codes at admission or during the stay. Predictability for hospital death was evaluated using C statistics from multivariable logistic regression models including age, sex, and individual CCI/ECI conditions or the CCI/ECI score in the derivation cohort. After stepwise selection, weighted risk scores were re-assigned to each condition based on the odds ratios (CCI) or beta-coefficient (ECI), and these modified models were evaluated in the validation cohort.</p><p>Results: The original CCI/ECI had good predictive abilities for hospital death: C statistics (95% confidence interval) for individual comorbidities and score models were 0.764 (0.762-0.765) and 0.731 (0.729-0.733) for CCI, and 0.783 (0.781-0.784) and 0.750 (0.748-0.752) for ECI, respectively. Modified CCI and ECI had 13 and 27 conditions, respectively, but maintained comparable predictive abilities: C statistics for modified individual comorbidities and score models were 0.761 (0.759-0.763) and 0.759 (0.757-0.760) for CCI, and 0.784 (0.782-0.785) and 0.783 (0.781-0.785) for ECI, respectively.</p><p>Conclusions: The original and modified CCI/ECI models, with reduced numbers of conditions, had sufficient and comparable predictive abilities for hospital death and can be used in future studies using this administrative database.</p>

収録刊行物

  • 薬剤疫学

    薬剤疫学 25 (1), 1-14, 2020-04-25

    一般社団法人 日本薬剤疫学会

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