ROAD NETWORK RETROFITTING PRIORITIZATION UNDER SEISMIC AND TSUNAMI HAZARDS CAUSED BY THE ANTICIPATED NANKAI TROUGH EARTHQUAKE BASED ON THE PROBABILISTIC RISK AND RESILIENCE

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  • 南海トラフ地震による強震動と津波を受ける道路ネットワークのリスク・レジリエンス評価手法の提案と構造物の補強優先度判定への適用

Abstract

<p> A procedure for estimating the risk and resilience of a road network including bridges and embankments under the seismic and subsequent tsunami caused by the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake is presented. Probabilistic approach for road network retrofitting prioritization is the topic of this paper. Risk and resilience are quantified by the economical loss due to the damage to individual structures and post-disaster functionality of road network, respectively. Uncertainties associated with the estimations of fault movement, hazard intensity, and structural vulnerability are considered when estimating the failure probability in the Monte Carlo simulation. In an illustrative example, the retrofitting priority of bridges and embankments in the road networks subjected to the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake is determined based on the proposed performance indicators (i.e. risk and resilience).</p>

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