FUTURE CHANGE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY BY CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON d4PDF/d2PDF DATASETS
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- MORI Sotaro
- 京都大学大学院 工学研究科
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- MORI Nobuhito
- 京都大学 防災研究所
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- d4PDF/d2PDFにもとづく気候変動による熱帯低気圧強度の将来変化
- d4PDF/d2PDF ニ モトズク キコウ ヘンドウ ニ ヨル ネッタイ テイキアツ キョウド ノ ショウライ ヘンカ
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Abstract
<p> We analyzed tropical cyclone (TC) based on the theory of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) for long-term evaluation of extreme storm surge height. Based on mega climate ensemble d4PDF/d2PDF data focusing on the Northwest Pacific, we investigate future changes in MPI and TC intensity and other characteristics on GCMs for different global warming scenarios. The spatial correlation between the MPI and the top 10% intensified TCs in active TC month in basin scale is found to be strongly dependent on the ocean. We analyzed the future changes in the MPI in the Northwest Pacific and found that it reached its maximum in the latitude range of 30-40N in September. The future changes in MPI in the Northwest Pacific are -7.8 hPa at +2 K climate and -16.5 hPa at +4 K climate on average. These results indicate that it is important to consider the frequency of extreme TCs to evaluate the return period of extrme storm surge height.</p>
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 76 (2), I_1099-I_1104, 2020
Japan Society of Civil Engineers
