Reproducibility of Numerical Experiments for Environmental Assessment of the Coastal Ocean : Tidal Currents

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  • 沿岸域で用いられる数値モデルの再現性－潮汐流－
  • エンガンイキ デ モチイラレル スウチ モデル ノ サイゲンセイ : チョウセキリュウ

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Abstract

When large-scale constructions or big projects are planned in a coastal region, environmental assessment that includes predictions with numerical experiments is performed. Scientific understanding of phenomena in the coastal ocean is frequently based on numerical experiments. Their reliability depends on their reproducibility with the observed evidences ; however, quantitative evaluation is insufficient. Herein, we discuss the reproducibility of tidal currents that were analyzed with numerical models. At first, temporal variations in the tidal harmonic constants that were calculated with a time series of current velocity observed at fixed stations revealed the uncertainty of the harmonic constants that are analyzed in typical environmental assessments. In the observations, the uncertainty of the M2 tidal current was about 10%. The harmonic constants were calculated with the results from four numerical models. Even for the cases with models that were reproducible, we found a10－ 20% difference of the M2 amplitude between the models. In the actual numerical experiments, performance of the numerical models could be often tuned with observation data. However, since it would be not easy to be tuned exactly everywhere in the domain, we recommend that a difference within20% from the observations should be allowed in numerical experiments.

Journal

  • Bulletin on Coastal Oceanography

    Bulletin on Coastal Oceanography 59 (1), 47-57, 2021

    Coastal Oceanography Research Committee, the Oceanographic Society of Japan

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