Evaluation method of consolidation of public facilities and its optimal timing in a depopulating city

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  • 人口減少都市における公共施設の統廃合とその最適時期の評価手法

Abstract

<p>In depopulating cities in Japan, consolidations of public facilities such as school, community center and public housing are issues to be considered. This study proposes the evaluation method of consolidation of public facilities and its optimal timing in such cities. The method consists of the urban economic model which can estimate time-series population distribution in a city and the cost benefit analysis. We also develop an empirical model for Kozaki town and its two neighboring cities, Chiba prefecture, Japan. With the model, we estimate the impact of consolidation of elementary schools in Kozaki town in 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045 on population distribution from 2020 to 2060 and cost benefit ratio. As results of the estimation and the analysis, it is indicated that consolidation of elementary schools in Kozaki town in each year is beneficial and consolidation in 2025 is optimal.</p>

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