Regional Economic Integration and Its Impacts on Growth, Income Distribution and Poverty in East Asia : A CGE Analysis

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type:Departmental Bulletin Paper

Regional economic integration in East Asia has evolved in fact on the basis of market forces but, now in the 21st century, it is institutionally promoted by forming free trade agreements (FTAs) between countries in the region. Focusing on the network of FTAs in East Asia consisting of ASEAN, NIEs, China and Japan or the East Asian Community (EAC), this paper quantifies impacts of the institution-led regional economic integration to analyze and evaluate its potential on growth, income distribution and poverty reduction for the region. Analysis of poverty and income distribution is made especially for four developing countries in East Asia: China, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Methodology is a global CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model, which links country or regional CGE models all over the world. Its framework and database are basically the same as GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project), but it incorporates household data of income and expenditures for the four countries and extends the model accordingly in framework to combine micro households and macro industries. The impact analysis based on the world CGE model indicates that the East Asian FATs generally have positive effects on growth, improve income distribution, and result in poverty reduction, though the impacts on china are a little bit exceptional. The results indicate positive potential or long-run positive effects of the East Asian Community, but its requirement of structural adjustment is the actual problem to be overcome in the short-run.### This paper is based on the analysis of comparative statics for the benchmark year 2001. Our next task is to investigate the time profiles based on the dynamic simulation of the period, say, 2001-2025 by allowing for capital mobility, labor migration, productivity growth, etc., as well as by incorporating the aspect of common currency unit to make implications of the East Asian Community more comprehensive and definite as the economic and monetary union.

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