LONG TERM PROJECTION OF WATER RESOURCES OVER JAPAN WITH SUPER-HIGH RESOLUTION CLIMATE MODEL AND LANDUSE SCENARIO

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  • 超高解像度気候モデルと将来土地利用変化を用いた日本の水資源量の長期変化予測

Abstract

<p> This study projects long-term changes in available water resources over Japan using the 150-year continuous run of the Meteorological Research Institute's super-high resolution climate model (MRI-AGCM3.2S). Available water resources was evaluated for multiple land use scenarios to isolate the impact of climate change and land use change. The difference in evapotranspiration is as large as 500mm in the area where population change is large. In response to the regional distribution of changes in climatic conditions, the amount of available water resources will increase significantly in north part of Japan, while the amount of evapotranspiration will also increase nationwide. It was projected that the amount of available water resources will decrease significantly in the central mountainous area. Time series of climatological value of available water resource was analyzed for each river basin. The long-term change patterns vary depending on the basin, and the climatological values do not always change unidirectionally from the present to the future. Available water resources will become more severe before the end of the century in some basins.</p>

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