FLOOD RISK PROBABILITY PREDICTION USING A RAINFALL INDEX EQUIVALENT WARNING LEVEL 4 FOR EACH RIVER SYSTEM

DOI Web Site 7 References
  • ITO Takehiko
    東京理科大学大学院 理工学研究科土木工学専攻・日本学術振興会
  • OTA Koyo
    東京理科大学大学院 理工学研究科土木工学専攻
  • NIHEI Yasuo
    東京理科大学 理工学部土木工学科

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Other Title
  • 水系毎の警戒レベル4相当雨量を指標とした氾濫危険確率予測手法の提案

Abstract

<p> It is necessary to develop a rainfall index that directly predict the occurrence of flooding for early evacuation of the residents. In this study, we proposed a method to directly and probabilistically predict the occurrence of inundation from a rainfall index. We calculated the 24hours rainfall averaged over the catchment area (Lv4 rainfall) corresponding to the hazardous water level at each 109 class A river systems nationwide based on past observed data of rainfall and water level. Then, we evaluate the flood risk probability that the water level reach the hazardous level, by using the Lv4 rainfall and an ensemble predicted rainfall data. This method was applied to the heavy rainfall events in July 2020 at the Kyushu region. The results indicated that the rates of concordance, oversight and missing were 27.8, 0.76 and 5.46%. The median of lead time was 19 hours. These show the fundamental validity of this method.</p>

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