Comparative Analysis of Time Coefficient Estimation Model based on Departure Time Using Step-by-Step Estimations of OD flows in and out of the Region

FUJITA Motohiro, HAYASHI Hiroki

doi:10.14954/jste.8.4_a_34

<p>In order to improve the accuracy of the Time-of-day User Equilibrium assignment for countermeasures against traffic congestion during peak hours, an Hourly OD Flow Estimation from observed traffic flows based on time coefficient of daily OD flow has been developed. In this study, we examined issues such as the computational efficiency of this method in the stepwise estimation of out-of-area and intra-area OD flow. In addition to the three-step estimation method of the previous study, the two-step estimation method and the simultaneous estimation method were examined, and the estimation accuracy was compared. As a result of the inverse estimation, the simultaneous estimation method was found to have the best estimation accuracy as a whole, and the calculation time could be significantly reduced to approximately 1/3. However, in the estimation of out-of-area OD flow, excessive upward and downward fluctuations of the time coefficient were found, so we considered multiplying the weight coefficient of only the out-of-area OD flow pair by a correction multiplier. In terms of the overall estimation accuracy, it was found that the accuracy was even better with a correction multiplier while suppressing the excessive fluctuation of the time coefficient.</p>

Comparative Analysis of Time Coefficient Estimation Model based on Departure Time Using Step-by-Step Estimations of OD flows in and out of the Region

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