A simple risk assessment method for seismic slope failures contributing to the resilience of the road network

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  • 道路ネットワークの靭性向上に資する地震時斜面崩壊の簡易リスク評価手法

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<p>  Based on the actual damage data of 7 routes (total length of about 70km) around the Aso area damaged by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, an attempt was made to develop a damage estimation method that combines the degree of risk and the degree of impact. The probability of collapse occurrence by risk and seismic intensity was evaluated based on the topographical and geological conditions along the road. In addition, the degree of impact based on the amount of collapsed sediment and the sediment removal time was considered. Then, using Monte Carlo simulation, a model was constructed to probabilistically calculate the location of the collapse, the scale of the collapse, and the sediment removal time (road recovery time). As a result of the verification, the actual damage situation was almost simulated, and it was shown that it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the deterioration of the road network function caused by the slope failure during the earthquake.</p>

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