FUNDAMENTAL STUDY ON UNCERTAINTY OF DEBRIS DRIFT BEHAVIOR DURING TSUNAMI AND ITS APPLICATION TO NUMERICAL SIMULATION

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  • SHIRAI Tomoki
    中央大学大学院 理工学研究科都市人間環境学専攻
  • MORITA Riko
    元 中央大学大学院 理工学研究科都市人間環境学専攻
  • ENOMOTO Yota
    中央大学大学院 理工学研究科都市人間環境学専攻
  • ARIKAWA Taro
    中央大学 理工学部都市環境学科

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  • 漂流挙動の不確実性とその予測手法に関する基礎的研究

Abstract

<p> The behavior of drifting debris at the time of a tsunami is subject to large uncertainties, and therefore it is common to use a random-motion model in numerical simulations for probabilistic evaluation. However, currently we do not have enough knowledge on the degree of variation in drifting behavior due to differences in the shape and specific weight of drifting objects, and thus we need to improve the evaluation of the variation in numerical simulations. Here we demonstrate that the effects of changing the shape and specific weight of drifting debris on drifting behavior by conducting hydraulic experiments. Based on the experiments, the variation coefficient that should be given to the drifting behavior in the random-motion model was estimated as a constant multiple of the previous value. As a result, we found that a 10 times of the previous variation coefficient can best qualitatively reproduce the uncertainty in the drifting behavior. In the future, considering a variation coefficient that takes the draft into account to improve the accuracy of drift simulations just before drifting ashore.</p>

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