CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON RIVER FLOW REGIME CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY OF RUNOFF MODEL AND CLIMATE MODEL

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  • 流出モデルと気候モデルの不確実性を考慮した気候変動が河川流況に与える影響評価

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<p> In previous studies, climate data is considered the uncertainies by multi-ensemble data in climate change impact assessment. On the other hand, impact assessment model such as runoff model has not been taken into account the uncertainties like the range of predicted results by the model using the range of parameters that change with the predicted floods. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the importance of the uncertainties of the runoff model for the future predictions by using d4PDF as input data to the model which is used the range of parameters ("the possible runoff model"). As the result, it is suggested that the changing trend that there is possible of missing such as the frequency of flood and draught in the case of using only "the best parameters model" which is optimized in calibration period could be able to predict by using "the possible runoff model".</p>

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