防災減災に資する公共事業についての統計論的一考察 : 現代の脅威は地震かそれとも水害か？

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書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • Statistical Study of Public Works Conductive to Disaster Prevention and Mitigation : Which one is more Dangerous, Earthquake or Flood?

抄録

Recently, public work-related expenditures is large enough to reach nearby 100 billion JPY due to the budget increasing by supplementary one for the Fundamental Plan of National Resilience. Much of them are spent for the major disaster response and preparedness as earthquake or flood. Contrary to fundamental principle the Plan, appropriations to the latter one is larger than the former one in these days as measures to cope with Global Warming issues. With that kind of background, the first purpose of this study is to discuss justification and rationality of such recent financial politics tendency. Specifically, it shows that there is so large different degree of the uncertainty between earthquake and flood when one tries to estimate the investment efficiency to implement the social overhead capital related with each disaster preventing. Taking an example of Nankai megathrust earthquake, one can see easily that there is much difficulty to estimate the expected benefit of disaster preventing with high reliability. On the other hand, the damage reduction effect for the flood and landslide disaster can be evaluated generally in more objective way. These are able to confirm with a few simple statistical thought experiment.

収録刊行物

  • 経済科学

    経済科学 70 (4), 45-58, 2023-03

    名古屋大学大学院経済学研究科

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