Scenario Analysis for Achieving Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction by Half by 2030 in the Commercial Sector of Tokyo

KATANO Hiroaki, MASUI Toshihiko

doi:10.11353/sesj.36.94

<p>The purpose of this study is to clarify countermeasures necessary to achieve GHG emission reduction target for 2030 (51％ reduction from 2013 level) for the commercial sector in Tokyo. In order to clarify countermeasures, the study estimate GHG emission when several CO₂ emission reduction measures are implemented by using AIM Enduse Model, a bottom-up energy model. The results showed that the target could be achieved by implementing countermeasures such as carbon tax, subsidy, promoting the diffusion of LED lighting and the decrease in emission factor of electricity. In terms of equipment penetration rate, the target was achieved because of the progress of LED lighting penetration to over 80％ and the significant progress of electrification of cooling and heating equipment. To achieve LED lighting penetration to over 80％, some lighting equipment needs to be replaced with LED lighting before it reaches the end of its useful life. Furthermore, conversion from gas cooling and heating equipment to electric equipment may be hindered since technological lock-in issues exist in the selection of energy-using equipment. Therefore, depending on the actual situation, policy measures such as regulations and subsidies are necessary to accelerate the diffusion of LED lighting and promote electrification.</p>

Scenario Analysis for Achieving Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction by Half by 2030 in the Commercial Sector of Tokyo

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