The Study on Prediction of Agricultural Population Using Cohorts Analysis

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  • Kim Dongil
    Laboratory of Food Marketing and Distribution, Division of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University
  • Moritaka Masahiro
    Laboratory of Food Marketing and Distribution, Division of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University
  • Seifeddine Ben Taieb
    Laboratory of Food Marketing and Distribution, Division of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University

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  • 農業人口の将来予測に関する考察

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This study argued that the growth of the agricultural population should be predicted by excluding household members who do not engage in agriculture among the farmers’household members. In addition, to clarify the accuracy of the forecast method of agricultural population, this paper used (1) cohort change ratio method, (2) cohort marginal change method, (3) cohort regression ratio, and (4) cohort component method. The size of the agricultural population was estimated and compared with actual measurements. The results showed that the method with the highest accuracy was cohort component method. Finally, this study forecasts agricultural population for the long-term using the estimation methods (1) to (4). Only cohort change ratio method and cohort component method adjust to forecast for the long-term. The cohort change ratio method reflects the most recent change ratio and forecasts all period using the most recent change ratio. The cohort component method reflects the most recent trends for one period (which lasts 5 years) and the death ratio. After that the first period, the agricultural population forecasted decrease by the death ratio. This paper proposes that it is desirable to make complementary inferences about forecasting agricultural population from the implications of these two methods.

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