IMPROVEMENT DESIGN USING RESPONSE SURFACE METHOD FOR EXISTING BREAKWATERS UNDER UNCERTAINTY OF CLIMATE CHANGE

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  • 気候変動に伴う作用条件の変化に対する既存防波堤の応答曲面法を用いた改良設計手法

Abstract

<p> With climate change, existing breakwaters are directly affected by rising mean sea level, increasing storm surge level and wave height, which is likely to increase the risk of damage. In order to evaluate whether the stability and other performance of the structure can be maintained under changing load conditions in the future, it is necessary to verify the stability of breakwaters under a wide range of load conditions, and the number of structures subjected to such verification is large. The workload required for stability verification is therefore very large. In addition, when there is a wide range of assumed changes in future load conditions, it may be reasonable to narrow down the assumed range and make a decision after obtaining more information, rather than making a decision at a certain point in time. Therefore, this study proposes a practical improvement design method for existing breakwaters using the response surface method and real option analysis to efficiently evaluate the performance of breakwaters under changing load conditions with uncertainty, and to evaluate the necessity of countermeasures and to select the countermeasure method.</p>

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