PROCRUSTEAN BED PROBLEM IN HYDROLOGIC FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

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  • 水文統計における「プロクルステスの寝台」問題

Abstract

<p> Procrustean bed is an epigram to admonish a hard and fast rule. In the conventional manner to estimate the return levels of the precipitation and the river discharge, we prepare the numerous candidate frequency distributions including the extreme value distribution and the other ones, and we try to fit them to the records and select one of the best ones by means of the goodness-of-fit. It will be a procedure to avoid imposing a certain prejudice. However there's room for improvement in the examination of the distributions. Cut-and-try is an inevitable path in scientifical and engineering judgements but comparing various distributions is difficult like doing apple to orange. The result based on the extreme value theory should be accepted with help of Theseus' wisdom and ingenuity.</p>

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