Downside risk in Australian and Japanese stock markets : evidence based on the expectile regression

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The expectile-based Value at Risk (EVaR) has gained popularity as it is more sensitive to the magnitude of extreme losses than the conventional quantile-based VaR (QVaR). This paper applies the expectile regression approach to evaluate the EVaR of stock market indices of Australia and Japan. We use an expectile regression model that considers lagged returns and common risk factors to calculate the EVaR for each stock market and to evaluate the interdependence of downside risk between the two markets. Our findings suggest that both Australia and Japan stock markets are affected by their past development and the international stock　markets. Additionally, ASX 200 index has significant impact on Nikkei 225 in terms of downside tail risk, while the impact of Nikkei 225 on ASX is not significant.

Journal

  • Working Paper Series

    Working Paper Series (17), 1-26, 2024-02

    Faculty of Economics. Saitama University

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