A Study on the Causal Relationship Between Labor Shortages and Wage Increases

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  • 人手不足と賃金上昇の因果関係についての考察
  • ヒトデ ブソク ト チンギン ジョウショウ ノ インガ カンケイ ニ ツイテ ノ コウサツ

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This paper examines the causal relationship between labor shortages and wage increases. In economic terms, a labor shortage is an excess demand in the labor market, which causes wages to rise. On the other hand, the rise in wages will reduce excess demand and eventually resolve the labor shortage problem. However, over the period from 1991 to 2020, changes in labor shortages and wages do not necessarily match economic perspectives. Not only that, but the effective job openings-to-applicants ratio has repeatedly risen and fallen during this period. Wages did not show any noticeable changes, but they continued to rise and fall repeatedly. This paper divides the period into several periods, examines the characteristics of each period, and attempts to provide economic interpretations from various angles of phenomena that, at first glance, seem to contradict economic theory. We use the effective job openings-to-applicants ratio to capture situations of labor shortages or over-staffing. We also explore why wages have not increased despite the existence of a labor shortage.

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