Identifying the Ratio of Aircraft Applying SLOP by Statistical Modeling of Lateral Deviation

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The distribution of lateral deviation is modeled in oceanic airspace where Strategic Lateral Offset Procedure (SLOP) is used. SLOP allows a pilot to select to fly not only on a defined route but also on a path 1 or 2 nautical miles (NM) on the right of the predefined route, which makes the distribution asymmetrical. Therefore, a new probability density function accounting for the SLOP effect is proposed. The model parameters are estimated based on the maximum likelihood algorithm. Fast convergence is achieved by using Newton’s method and a variable neighborhood search algorithm. The model fitness is investigated based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), frequency distribution, and distribution of the core parameter. Finally, an accurate lateral deviation model is obtained, which helps to identify the ratio of aircraft using the SLOP.

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