A Quantitative Analysis of Shrink and Agglomeration of Cities Caused by Depopulation

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  • 人口減少に伴う都市の縮退と集積に関する基礎的定量分析
  • ジンコウ ゲンショウ ニ トモナウ トシ ノ シュクタイ ト シュウセキ ニ カンスル キソテキ テイリョウ ブンセキ

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Metropolitan area has both growing cities and shrinking cities. Economic activity agglomerates to only some urban region. Shrinking of the cities causes many social problems such as decline in quality of living in city and difficulty of fiscal condition of local government. Estimation of future situation of region and understanding what policy can mitigate the decline of quality of urban life are important matters for policy makers. This paper aims to support answering these questions by means of regional economic modeling. We apply a spatial computable general equilibrium model to suburban regions of Tokyo Metropolitan area in Japan. The simulation analysis of near future situation after depopulation derives the estimates which city may shrink in earlier phase.

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