Dynamic Concepts for Travel Demand on Return-Home Trips following Earthquakes

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  • 動的概念による地震発生時の帰宅交通需要の考え方
  • ドウテキ ガイネン ニ ヨル ジシン ハッセイジ ノ キタク コウツウ ジュヨウ ノ カンガエカタ

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Abstract

Based on an analysis of current concepts concerning people's return-home trips (RHTs) and using original survey data collected between 1995 and 2009, this paper proposes new concepts in travel demand on RHTs following earthquakes. Recently, travel demand on RHTs has been estimated at hourly intervals using the defacto population of those who spend time in the stay zone and those who return home (or do not return home) after the occurrence of an earthquake. However, in new interpretations of this data, RHT travel demand can be more realistically and accurately assessed using new concepts of dynamic trips, simulations of sudden earthquake occurrences (at 5-minute intervals), enhanced details featuring five locations between origins and destinations, and the path dependencies of 16 types of response trips.

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