Population Projection Method considering a Transition Process of Residential District based on the Area Mesh Data

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  • 地域メッシュデータに基づく住宅地の遷移過程を考慮した将来人口予測手法の提案
  • チイキ メッシュデータ ニ モトズク ジュウタクチ ノ センイ カテイ オ コウリョ シタ ショウライ ジンコウ ヨソク シュホウ ノ テイアン

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In recent years, it passes a peak of population and reaches a threshold in Japan. Therefore it is needed to plan urban design by a small zone with future population and desired this. This study makes known about past formative process by using national population census and household information, and proposes a method to predict future population on the basis of probabilistically-processed urban formation and increase-decrease rate. In addition, this study compares precision between this method and existing one. As a result, it is evidence for estimate of future population on small zone that this method haves more accuracy than traditional one.

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