Estimation Method of the Future Age Structure of Small Area based on the Mesh-based Population Census Data

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  • 国勢調査メッシュデータに基づく地区の将来人口構成予測手法
  • コクセイ チョウサ メッシュデータ ニ モトヅク チク ノ ショウライ ジンコウ コウセイ ヨソク シュホウ

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Abstract

Many cities are facing to rapid aging, decrease of inhabitants and subsequent problems of restructuring community, public service, maintenance of regional facilities. This paper proposes an estimation method of future age structure of small area, which is important information for those issues, based on the mesh-based Population Census Data. The proposed method first uses cohort survival calculation to find net immigrations of age groups. Factor analysis extracts stable tendency of household groups in different lifecycles. Vector auto-regression model enables to forecast the future tendency of household immigration in each mesh. The result of an application in Hiroshima Metropolitan area proves the applicability of the method and several insights, comparison with the conventional simple method based on Cohort Change Rate.

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