詳細な属性を考慮した都市圏世帯分布予測システムの構築

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  • A Forecasting Model of Household Distribution by Zone and Detailed Attribute for A Metropolitan Aerea
  • ショウサイ ナ ゾクセイ オ コウリョ シタ トシケン セタイ ブンプ ヨソク システム ノ コウチク

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Abstract

Aging and population decreasing society of Japan is causing dramatic changes in household distribution in metropolitan areas. The purpose of the present study is to build a forecasting system of household distribution by zone and detailed attribute in order to estimate future demand for public services with the Sendai Metropolitan Area (SMA) as a case study area. At first, detailed cross sectional data of household and housing distribution in the base year is estimated with multi-dimensional IPF method. Then, a forecasting system is built based on relocation and zone-choice models, which are calibrated with recent survey data. The study is concluded with discussions on the issues in SMA identified in the simulations conducted by the system.

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