Factor analysis and estimation of rate of vacant dwellings

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  • 空き家率の要因分析と将来推計
  • アキヤリツ ノ ヨウイン ブンセキ ト ショウライ スイケイ

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Increase in the rate of vacant dwellings has become a big social issue. In this study, we clarified the social factors which lead to increase rate of vacant dwellings using multiple regression analysis to estimated rate of vacant dwellings by 2035. The study introduced to use data at local government level, so the output will be available at this level of details. As a result of the estimation, in case that the balance between construction and demolition of dwellings will remains constant, Japan’s average rate of vacant dwellings will be about 20% and the gap of rate of vacant dwellings among prefecture will widen in 2035. In case that this balance will be improved and the increasing rate of vacant dwellings will be 0 in 2023, the average rate of vacant dwellings will be about 13% and the rate of Yamanashi prefecture will be about 16% in 2035.

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